$33 Billion → $128 Billion
The green line is what voters were promised. The red is what happened. Every point is an official CHSRA cost estimate drawn from published business plans and project updates. The range widens over time as even the Authority stopped pretending to know what the project would cost.
Note the pattern: estimates drop temporarily when scope is cut (2016, 2018), then resume climbing. The 2024/2025 estimates show the widest range ever reported ($89-128B), reflecting deep uncertainty even within CHSRA about what the project will ultimately cost.
The green dashed line at $33.6B represents what voters were told when they approved Prop 1A in November 2008. At the time, the Reason Foundation had already projected $65-81B. The Authority dismissed these projections. The Reason Foundation was right.